The simultaneous or subsequent occurrence different flood drivers including heavy rainfall, river overflow, storm tides, among others threaten Canadian communities and infrastructure especially in coastal environments. Analysis of drivers of flooding in isolation without proper characterization of their interrelationships can lead to a significant underestimation of flood risk. This can severely undermine resilience measures and lead to the misallocation of investment in flood protection. In this project, we will develop an integrated statistical and physically-based modelling framework to simulate and predict compound flood risks under climate change in Canadian coastal zones to develop effective mitigation plans. The proposed approach will quantifythe dependencies between multiple flood hazards and identify/characterize compound events using a novel multivariate statistical approach. We will set up and calibrate a land surface modelcoupled to a hydrodynamic model to characterize the multivariate behaviour of flooding. The resulting framework will assess the impacts of compound flooding and characterize the contribution of each driver to the impacted areas under future scenarios considering the effects of more intense hydroclimatic events and sea-level rise in a changing climate. In collaboration with the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR), we will disseminate the results from the proposed project directly to insurance industry involved in the management of urban flood risks. This project will provide river forecast centres, conservation authorities, insurance industries, municipalities, among other stakeholders with data, rigorous methodology, and personnel to analyze and predict compound flooding and will significantly contribute to improved resilience of Canadian cities and communities.

Industry Partner(s):Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

Academic Institution:Western University

Academic Researcher: Reza Najafi, Mohammad

Focus Areas: Environment & Climate

Platforms: Parallel CPU