

U.S. President Donald Trump has officially signed an order imposing steep tariffs on Canadian exports, effective February 4, 2025. The move includes a 10% tariff on Canadian energy and a 25% tariff on all other exports, sparking concerns across multiple industries that rely heavily on U.S. trade.
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With the United States accounting for over 77% of all Canadian exports, the economic impact of these tariffs could be significant. According to Statistics Canada, Canada’s total exports to the U.S. in 2023 exceeded $594 billion, with six key industries making up 43% of that total. These sectors are now bracing for billions in additional costs due to Trump’s tariffs.
Here’s a breakdown of which Canadian industries will suffer the most from these new tariffs and how much they stand to lose.
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1. Oil and Gas Extraction – Facing a $14.3 Billion Cost Increase
🔹 Total U.S. exports (2023): $143 billion
🔹 Percentage of total exports sent to the U.S.: 97%
🔹 Estimated additional tariff costs: $14.3 billion
Provinces Most Affected:
📍 Alberta: $121.6 billion in U.S. exports
📍 Saskatchewan: $11.7 billion
📍 Newfoundland & Labrador: $6.8 billion
📍 British Columbia: $6.7 billion
The Canadian oil and gas industry will take the biggest financial hit due to the 10% tariff on energy exports. Alberta, which leads the sector, could see massive losses, potentially leading to job cuts and reduced production.
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2. Auto and Light-Duty Vehicle Manufacturing – $13.3 Billion in Added Costs
🔹 Total U.S. exports (2023): $53 billion
🔹 Percentage of total exports sent to the U.S.: 96%
🔹 Estimated additional tariff costs: $13.3 billion
Provinces Most Affected:
📍 Ontario: $52.5 billion in U.S. exports
📍 Quebec: $24 million
📍 Alberta: $17 million
Canada’s automobile manufacturing sector, heavily concentrated in Ontario, will suffer due to the 25% tariff on auto exports. This could lead to higher vehicle prices, reduced production, and layoffs in major auto plants.
3. Petroleum Refining – An Extra $2.3 Billion in Costs
🔹 Total U.S. exports (2023): $23 billion
🔹 Percentage of total exports sent to the U.S.: 85%
🔹 Estimated additional tariff costs: $2.3 billion
Provinces Most Affected:
📍 New Brunswick: $10.1 billion in U.S. exports
📍 Alberta: $6 billion
📍 Quebec: $3.7 billion
📍 Ontario: $2.4 billion
Canada’s refined petroleum exports—gasoline, diesel, and other fuel products—will also be hit with the 10% tariff, raising concerns about rising fuel prices and declining profits in refining hubs.
4. Crop and Animal Production – Facing $3.3 Billion in New Tariff Costs
🔹 Total U.S. exports (2023): $13.1 billion
🔹 Percentage of total exports sent to the U.S.: 32%
🔹 Estimated additional tariff costs: $3.3 billion
Provinces Most Affected:
📍 Ontario: $4.7 billion in U.S. exports
📍 Alberta: $1.9 billion
📍 Saskatchewan: $1.8 billion
📍 British Columbia: $1.4 billion
📍 Quebec: $1.2 billion
📍 Manitoba: $1.2 billion
With a 25% tariff on agricultural exports, Canadian farmers and food producers will face higher costs and potential trade disruptions, impacting livestock, grain, and dairy exports.
5. Aluminum Production – Tariffs Adding $3.2 Billion in Costs
🔹 Total U.S. exports (2023): $12.8 billion
🔹 Percentage of total exports sent to the U.S.: 93%
🔹 Estimated additional tariff costs: $3.2 billion
Provinces Most Affected:
📍 Quebec: $9.8 billion in U.S. exports
📍 Ontario: $2 billion
📍 British Columbia: $915 million
With the U.S. being the primary buyer of Canadian aluminum, the 25% tariff could reduce demand, hurting production and driving up costs for aluminum manufacturers.
6. Aerospace Manufacturing – Another $3.2 Billion Burden
🔹 Total U.S. exports (2023): $12.8 billion
🔹 Percentage of total exports sent to the U.S.: 67%
🔹 Estimated additional tariff costs: $3.2 billion
Provinces Most Affected:
📍 Quebec: $8.8 billion in U.S. exports
📍 Ontario: $3.2 billion
📍 Manitoba: $374 million
Canada’s aerospace sector, a major supplier of aircraft parts and technology to the U.S., could face declining orders, factory slowdowns, and job losses due to the 25% tariff.
What’s Next for Canada’s Economy?
With billions of dollars in extra costs, Canada faces severe economic pressure due to Trump’s tariffs. Experts predict:
🚨 Rising prices for consumer goods, vehicles, and fuel
🚨 Potential layoffs in manufacturing, energy, and agriculture
🚨 Trade disputes and possible Canadian countermeasures
While the Canadian government may explore trade negotiations or tariff retaliation, businesses and workers in energy, auto manufacturing, agriculture, and aluminum will need to brace for impact in the coming months.
📌 What do you think of Trump’s tariffs? Will they push Canada to diversify its trade partnerships? Share your thoughts!
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